Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 17.047662 19.544789 22.452143 26.130566 30.723991 36.358953 4.393748e+01
2025-03-09 14.015380 17.072544 20.968482 26.439676 34.174035 45.145007 6.277553e+01
2025-03-16 11.906459 15.027336 19.225638 25.520985 35.185144 50.384474 7.842959e+01
2025-03-23 10.677484 13.866620 18.351017 25.459108 37.194168 57.511692 1.005763e+02
2025-03-30 9.459806 12.526851 16.973525 24.304724 37.071111 60.864477 1.173777e+02
2025-04-06 8.433408 11.332275 15.633740 22.944569 36.225258 62.521442 1.314793e+02
2025-04-13 7.656070 10.420896 14.608607 21.923595 35.738440 64.707871 1.485794e+02
2025-04-20 7.744084 10.811218 15.650823 24.589360 42.908032 86.507080 2.467800e+02
2025-04-27 7.474097 10.610993 15.698376 25.462154 46.674378 102.236345 3.525130e+02
2025-05-04 6.922306 9.910712 14.824928 24.443953 45.992143 105.465299 4.078015e+02
2025-05-11 6.709029 9.741663 14.846439 25.180538 49.604142 123.728736 6.034725e+02
2025-05-18 6.392442 9.374545 14.478114 25.063461 51.089892 136.082948 8.145944e+02
2025-05-25 6.072370 8.995935 14.085291 24.911412 52.674237 151.005435 1.172242e+03
2025-06-01 5.836319 8.744169 13.903489 25.197692 55.612094 174.522705 1.976523e+03
2025-06-08 5.486058 8.268267 13.254665 24.339225 54.996861 181.786524 2.655954e+03
2025-06-15 5.260829 7.996626 12.971673 24.281354 56.825362 203.575987 4.766933e+03
2025-06-22 4.942492 7.539907 12.292621 23.201159 55.136993 204.860644 6.189184e+03
2025-06-29 4.627547 7.073477 11.564291 21.926630 52.556337 199.355162 7.064993e+03
2025-07-06 4.368755 6.696125 10.989336 20.968618 50.862136 198.643979 9.016865e+03
2025-07-13 4.477673 6.989949 11.773625 23.467630 61.960390 302.573338 2.025969e+06
2025-07-20 4.411799 6.956196 11.886298 24.284203 67.403250 381.027086 NaN
2025-07-27 4.195568 6.628919 11.360954 23.331513 65.455514 382.402036 NaN
2025-08-03 4.131762 6.586320 11.434822 24.020813 70.672264 481.628031 NaN